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Jak inwestować w "chaosie"

Jak inwestować w "chaosie"

   Kupić czy sprzedać, analizować czy opierać się na gotowych analizach, jak postępować, aby nie popełnić pomyłki, która może nas dużo kosztować, zwłaszcza w tak skomplikowanej sytuacji w jakiej znajdują się światowe rynki.
   Sprzedawanie akcji na wyścigi bez względu na cenę, sesje o rozpiętości wahań +- 10%, fantazyjne rekomendacje, spekulacje i inne dziwne rzeczy- tak przedstawia się obraz Giełd na całym świecie.
   W chwili obecnej inwestowanie mało co ma wspólnego z logiką, a prędzej z psychologią tłumu i reakcją łańcuchową, która jest o tyle niebezpieczna, że nie kieruje się rozsądkiem lecz prymitywnymi instynktami. Doświadczeni gracze potrafią czerpać korzyści w takich sytuacjach, jednak niedoświadczeni inwestorzy w wkiększości przypadków tracą  podczas łapania tzw. "spadających noży" i nierzadko są to Tylko pieniądze. Ci ostatni muszą pamiętać, że manipulacje możliwe są jedynie na krótkich odcinkach czasowych, natomiast trend główny nigdy nie podlega manipulacji.
   Wielu analityków uważa, że polska gospodarka oprze się skutkom kryzysu w Ameryce i że spowolnienie potrwa jedynie do 2012r, a niektórzy twierdzą w bardziej optymistycznych scenariuszach, że z "bessy" zaczniemy wychodzić już pod koniec 2009r.
    

  Według teorii "Dowa" żeby "bessa" się wypełniła muszą zaistnieć trzy fazy:

1.pierwsza faza powinna odzwierciedlać upadek nadziei - czyli czynnika, na podstawie  którego podjęliśmy decyzję o zakupie akcji w końcowej fazie "hossy"
2.druga faza odzwierciedla sprzedaż powiązaną ze spowolnieniem gospodarczym i spadkiem aktywności gospodarczej.
3.trzecia faza wywołana jest  rozpaczliwą reakcją na beznadziejną sytuację i brak wiary w lepsze jutro, co w ostateczności jest przyczyną sprzedaży akcji za bezcen często bez względu na ich wartość.

   Rynek jest zlepkiem ludzi, którzy tworzą tłum, a on jak wiemy nie zawsze ma rację i o tym należy pamiętać. Jednak wśród tłumu są ludzie, którzy potrafią analizować, przewidywać wydarzenia i sytuacje, które mają nadejść. Dlatego tak ważną rolę odgrywa rynek kapitałowy, który pozwala dyskontować przyszłość i sytuację jakie mają nastąpić.
   Ruchy cen, wykresów, wskaźników i  średnich są wypadkową nastrojów, jakie panują w danym okresie. Sytuacja na giełdzie jest reakcją na wiedzę i informacje inwestorów, którzy uczestniczą w sposób aktywny na "parkiecie", dzięki czemu potrafią wyprzedzać wydarzenia, które mogą nastąpić. Często w ten sposób przewiduje się to w jakim kierunku nastąpi rozwój gospodarki.
    Dlatego jeżeli Giełda dyskontuje przyszłość to jej ruchy i reakcje następują z wyprzedzeniem, o czym należy pamiętać zawłaszcza w chaosie jaki zapanował obecnie i który sprawia tak wiele kłopotów i utrudnień

50 Komentarze
23-12-2008 19:38 zombi


orzech 28-12-2008 21:17
no tak, ale przeważnie inwestorzy postępują tak jak większość, po prostu układają się wraz z ruchem rynku. Nam pozostaje jednak czekać co nastąpi...
kraszek 29-12-2008 15:10
wiecznie spadac nie moze ponizej zera WIG raczej nie spadnie chyba ze wojna bedzie wtedy krach swiatowy i zamykanie giełd na calym swiecie bo nie bedzie komu kupowac
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Trzeba poprostu byc spokojnym
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wtedy zadna bessa nie strzszna
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